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We think that CPI inflation leapt to 9.4% in June, from 9.1% in May, exceeding the MPC’s 9.1% forecast.
But the upside surprise will be due to a massive rise in motor fuel prices, and another increase in food inflation.
Core inflation likely fell to 5.8%, from 5.9% in May; June 2021’s surge in goods prices likely wasn’t repeated.
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