Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

15th Dec 2021 18:00U.K., Daily Monitor

November's 5.1% CPI inflation rate was 0.6pp above the forecast made by the MPC only last month...

...But high inflation is due to surging energy and goods prices; underlying services inflation remains subdued.

We expect the headline rate to peak at 6.0% in April, but then to fall sharply, slipping below-target in 2023.

airline fares April bank rate bloomberg brent crude brent crude oil businesses clothing committee composite pmi computer games consumer consumer prices consumer services core cpi core goods core goods inflation cpi cpi inflation crude oil prices December depreciation education electricity employment energy energy prices euro February fed food food cpi inflation forecasts ftse fuel games gas prices gdp gilt goods inflation government growth growth rate headline CPI headline rate house price house price index house prices import prices index inflation inflation forecasts inflation rates input prices interest rate June labour labour market LIBOR manufacturing manufacturing pmi manufacturing sector March markets May monetary monetary policy motor fuel mpc natural gas natural gas prices November October official house price index Ofgem oil oil prices output price inflation package holidays pm pm forecast pmi policy ppi producer prices psnb q1 q2 q3 q4 rate hike re-election remain retail retail sales rpi services inflation services pmi services prices stockpiling supply swap rates tariff tax tobacco cpi inflation transport underlying services inflation unemployment unemployment rate vat vat cut vehicles wholesale energy prices winter

This publication is only available to UK Economic Research (Monitor) subscribers

Related Publications

Are you taking full advantage of our daily publications?

Pantheon Macroeconomics produce daily publications for U.S., Eurozone, Latin America, UK and Asia, as well as analysis on key data within a few minutes of their release.

U.S. Economic Research
Eurozone Economic Research
Latin America Economic Research
UK Economic Research
Asia Economic Research

Sign up for your complimentary trial

To start your complimentary trial, highlight the areas you are interested in subcribing to and click next.

United States


United Kingdom

China +

Emerging Asia

Latin America


Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: UK 16 Dec 2021

airline fares, April, bank rate, bloomberg, brent crude, brent crude oil, businesses, clothing, committee, composite pmi, computer games, consumer, consumer prices, consumer services, core cpi, core goods, core goods inflation, cpi, cpi inflation, crude oil prices, December, depreciation, education, electricity, employment, energy, energy prices, euro, February, fed, food, food cpi inflation, forecasts, ftse, fuel, games, gas prices, gdp, gilt, goods inflation, government, growth, growth rate, headline CPI, headline rate, house price, house price index, house prices, import prices, index, inflation, inflation forecasts, inflation rates, input prices, interest rate, June, labour, labour market, LIBOR, manufacturing, manufacturing pmi, manufacturing sector, March, markets, May, monetary, monetary policy, motor fuel, mpc, natural gas, natural gas prices, November, October, official house price index, Ofgem, oil, oil prices, output price inflation, package holidays, pm, pm forecast, pmi, policy, ppi, producer prices, psnb, q1, q2, q3, q4, rate hike, re-election, remain, retail, retail sales, rpi, services inflation, services pmi, services prices, stockpiling, supply, swap rates, tariff, tax, tobacco cpi inflation, transport, underlying services inflation, unemployment, unemployment rate, vat, vat cut, vehicles, wholesale energy prices, winter, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence