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15th Dec 2021 18:00U.K., Daily Monitor

November's 5.1% CPI inflation rate was 0.6pp above the forecast made by the MPC only last month...

...But high inflation is due to surging energy and goods prices; underlying services inflation remains subdued.

We expect the headline rate to peak at 6.0% in April, but then to fall sharply, slipping below-target in 2023.

airline fares April bank rate bloomberg brent crude brent crude oil businesses clothing committee composite pmi computer games consumer consumer prices consumer services core cpi core goods core goods inflation cpi cpi inflation crude oil prices December depreciation education electricity employment energy energy prices euro February fed food food cpi inflation forecasts ftse fuel games gas prices gdp gilt goods inflation government growth growth rate headline CPI headline rate house price house price index house prices import prices index inflation inflation forecasts inflation rates input prices interest rate June labour labour market LIBOR manufacturing manufacturing pmi manufacturing sector March markets May monetary monetary policy motor fuel mpc natural gas natural gas prices November October official house price index Ofgem oil oil prices output price inflation package holidays pm pm forecast pmi policy ppi producer prices psnb q1 q2 q3 q4 rate hike re-election remain retail retail sales rpi services inflation services pmi services prices stockpiling supply swap rates tariff tax tobacco cpi inflation transport underlying services inflation unemployment unemployment rate vat vat cut vehicles wholesale energy prices winter

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