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11th Oct 2021 18:00U.K., Economic Monitor

  • Markets see a 50% chance of the MPC hiking Bank Rate next month; December viewed as a done deal.
  • November still seems too early; the MPC saw "a high option value" in waiting for post-furlough jobs data.
  • Inflation expectations exceed the rate implied by current inflation, but this residual isn't a reliable wage signal.

bank bank rate brexit committee confidence core core goods cpi current inflation economic outlook economy focus food gdp gdp growth goods growth inflation inflation expectations interest rates investors it jobs labour labour market market markets members monetary monetary policy mpc mpc members outlook payroll policy pricing rates remain services services inflation wage wage costs

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