Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...
The first quarter’s rise in GDP has brittle foundations; households have had to retrench in Q2.
The support to GDP growth from restocking will fade; firms now have enough inventory to meet demand.
A recession, however, isn’t likely; households’ real dis- posable incomes will rise in Q3, and capex will recover.
This publication is only available to UK Economic Research (Monitor) subscribers
Pantheon Macroeconomics produce daily publications for U.S., Eurozone, Latin America, UK and Asia, as well as analysis on key data within a few minutes of their release.
business confidence, capex, cbi, construction, construction pmi, core cpi, cpi, disposable income, electricity, energy, gas prices, gdp growth, government, labour, labour market, manufacturers, mortgage, mpc, national accounts, pmi, q1, q3, q4, restocking, savings, stockbuilding, surveys, transportation, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence