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6th Sep 2023 19:29U.K., Daily Monitor

  • Employment is on a roughly flat trend, but sharp falls in May and June point to a big 3m/3m drop in July.
  • PAYE median pay has been distorted recently by arrears payments to health workers; AWE data exclude arrears.
  • Surveys point to a slight slowing in wage momentum in July, but we expect June's print to be revised up.

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Keywords for: 8 September 2023 UK Monitor

Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence