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7th Jul 2025 08:48UKDaily Monitor

  • We expect May’s monthly payroll fall to be revised up by 77K, and June’s first estimate to show a 15K drop.
  • Payrolls have gone haywire, while leading indicators suggest job growth is improving.
  • Private ex-bonus AWE should rise 0.5% month-to-month as pay growth slows only gradually.

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Keywords for: 8 July 2025 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence