Pantheon Macroeconomics

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5th Aug 2022 15:16U.K., Daily Monitor, Weekly Monitor

We think that GDP dropped by 1.6% month-to-month in June, almost entirely due to the extra public holiday.

GDP fell by 2.2% in 2002 and 1.7% in 2012; changes in the economy's composition since then won't help much.

Our forecast implies GDP fell by 0.3% q/q in Q2, but this probably won't mark the start of a recession.

business barometer business surveys car production construction economy energy gdp government growth health households June june gdp June gdp manufacturing manufacturing output May monetary monetary policy nhs orders pm policy production q4 recession retail retail sales September smmt survey surveys

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Keywords for: 8 Aug 2022 UK Monitor

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