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We think that GDP dropped by 1.6% month-to-month in June, almost entirely due to the extra public holiday.
GDP fell by 2.2% in 2002 and 1.7% in 2012; changes in the economy's composition since then won't help much.
Our forecast implies GDP fell by 0.3% q/q in Q2, but this probably won't mark the start of a recession.
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