Pantheon Macroeconomics

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3rd Feb 2023 15:56U.K., Daily Monitor

  • We look for a 0.4% m/m fall in GDP in December; snow and strikes likely amplified the downward trend.
  • Bar revisions, this would leave GDP in Q4 unchanged from Q3, 0.1pp below the MPC's latest forecast.
  • GDP will fall materially in Q1, as households and firms
    belt-tighten in response to the jump in borrowing costs.

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Keywords for: 7 Feb 2023 UK Monitor

Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence