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  • We expect Budget tax hikes and spending cuts of £40B to deliver double the previous fiscal headroom.
  • The devil is in the detail for the MPC, however, which likely needs to wait and see the Budget before acting.
  • Firms are brushing off tax speculation; the PMI signals growth close to potential and stabilising jobs.

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Keywords for: 6 November 2025 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence