Pantheon Macroeconomics

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6th Nov 2023 02:02U.K., Weekly Monitor

  • PMI data signal a mild recession, but we still expect brisk real income growth to lift households’ spending in Q4.
  • We have nudged up our forecast for CPI inflation in 2024 to 3.0%, from 2.7%, due to higher energy prices...
  • ...But it is still below the MPC’s latest projection; down- side surprises will open the door to rate cuts from Q2.

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Keywords for: 6 November 2023 UK Monitor

Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence