Pantheon Macroeconomics

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2nd Sep 2022 15:20U.K., Daily Monitor, Weekly Monitor

  • The jump in energy prices in August means we now expect CPI inflation to peak just above 16% in April 2023.
  • Wage and inflation expectations have risen too, so we now see 50bp rate hikes in September and November.
  • Extra fiscal support likely won't stop a consumer down- turn; an early 2023 recession has become our base case.

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Conservative party cpi cpi inflation electricity energy energy prices gas prices inflation expectations January labour mpc natural gas natural gas prices q1 real disposable incomes recession savings September wage growth wages

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Keywords for: 5 Sept 2022 UK Monitor

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