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1st Sep 2023 09:30U.K., Weekly Monitor

  • CPI inflation has fallen on cue, labour market slack has risen and the sub-50 PMI has reignited recession fears.
  • We still expect GDP to rise in Q3, due to support from fading strikes and lower energy bills, but by just 0.2% q/q.
  • Huw Pill revealed his preference for no further increase in Bank Rate; the 50bp rise that markets expect is in doubt.

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Keywords for: 4 September 2023 UK Monitor

Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence