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30th Sep 2022 15:17U.K., Daily Monitor

  • We now look for a 1.5% year-over-year drop in GDP in 2023, worse than our prior forecast for a 1.2% decline.
  • The Energy Price Guarantee has shored up real in- comes, but the tax cuts are counterproductive, net...
  • ...The hit from the resulting drop in sterling and rise in mortgage rates will outweigh the direct fiscal boost.

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Keywords for: 4 Oct 2022 UK Monitor

energy, mortgage, mortgage rates, policymakers, recession, sterling, tax cuts, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence