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2nd Jul 2025 10:13UKDaily Monitor

  • U-turns scorch the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom, and appetite for corrective action seems limited.
  • We expect ‘stealth tax’ hikes, some of which boost inflation, and a fudge of the fiscal rules in the Budget.
  • The PMI and DMP show better growth and slower inflation, but we expect only one more rate cut in 2025.

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Keywords for: 4 July 2025 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence