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2nd Aug 2023 20:05U.K., Daily Monitor

  • The MPC’s forecasts imply keeping Bank Rate at 5.25% would be “sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long”.
  • The new forecasts for GDP and CPI inflation leave ample scope for downside surprises over the coming months.
  • We still are pencilling-in one final 25bp rate hike for next month’s meeting, but it’s far from a certainty.

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Keywords for: 4 August 2023 UK Monitor

Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence