Pantheon Macroeconomics

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30th Jan 2023 09:43U.K., Daily Monitor

  • Wholesale prices imply the typical households' annualised energy bill will fall to £2.2K in Q3, from £3.0K in Q2.
  • The resulting fall in the electricity and natural gas CPIs will drag the headline inflation rate below 2% in Q4.
  • We are lifting our forecast for GDP in Q4 by a further 0.4pp, building on positive revisions two weeks ago.

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Keywords for: 31 Jan 2023 UK Monitor

cpi, electricity, energy, energy prices, futures prices, gas prices, headline inflation, headline rate, July, June, March, natural gas, October, Ofgem, ONS, q1, q2, q3, q4, wholesale energy prices, winter, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence