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26th Oct 2023 18:57U.K., Weekly Monitor

  • Downside surprises from CPI inflation and GDP support keeping Bank Rate at 5.25%; we expect a 6-3 vote split.
  • The MPC’s modal forecast for inflation in 2025, assuming constant rates, likely will remain slightly below 2%...
  • ...But it will continue to see net upside risk to its forecast and will refrain from hinting that rates will fall next year.

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Keywords for: 30 October 2023 UK Monitor

Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence