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1st Sep 2025 15:25UKDaily Monitor

  • We expect CPI inflation to hold at 3.8% in August, as a jump in food prices offsets a correction in airfares.
  • We see upside risk to our call after strong flash Eurozone food CPI inflation.
  • Gilts suffer from a global sell-off and UK-specific risks; Ms. Reeves needs to aim for proper fiscal headroom.

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Keywords for: 3 September 2025 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence