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Incoming data are consistent with our forecast for a sharp fall in house purchases and an 8% drop in prices.
The MPC, however, won’t keep Bank Rate at 4% indefinitely; house prices should rebound in the mid-2020s.
Mortgage payments’ share of incomes will not return to 2010s levels; hefty rent rises have raised the floor.
bank rate, house prices, mortgage, rent, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence