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Thursday's rate hike decision is a near-coin toss, but core inflation and unemployment data point to a 25bp hike.
The MPC's new forecasts likely will cast doubt on markets' expectations for substantial further tightening.
Expect the MPC to predict a recession and 5% unemployment in 2023, and sub-2% medium-term inflation.
Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence