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  • We expect the MPC to vote six-to-three to keep Bank Rate on hold at its February 5 meeting.
  • The decision is a foregone conclusion, so focus will be on the guidance, which we expect to change little.
  • Pay settlements likely slowing only slightly in 2026 will keep the MPC coy about the timing of the next cut.

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Keywords for: 29 January 2026 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence