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22nd May 2025 18:06UKDaily Monitor

  • Our high neutral rate estimate of 3.75%-4.0% is one reason we expect only one more MPC rate cut.
  • Elevated inflation expectations, especially for consumers, point to a high neutral rate.
  • Slowing disinflation in 2025 also suggests that Bank Rate is only modestly restrictive now.

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Keywords for: 28 May 2025 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence