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24th Jun 2025 09:07UKDaily Monitor

  • Official payroll data are vastly exaggerating the weakness in the job market, in our view.
  • May’s payrolls reading is especially unreliable, while the official data have diverged hugely from surveys.
  • Job vacancies seem to be stabilising, redundancies are low and jobless claims are down since October.

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Keywords for: 26 June 2025 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence