Pantheon Macroeconomics
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24th Aug 2022 13:44U.K., Daily Monitor
We expect Ofgem to announce today that the default tariff cap will increase by 80% in October.
This will boost CPI inflation by 4pp, assuming the ONS treats the government's grant as a fiscal transfer.
Core goods inflation, however, is set to fall sharply this winter; manufacturers and retailers have excess stock.
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