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22nd Sep 2023 19:35U.K., Weekly Monitor

  • The composite PMI has incorrectly signaled falling GDP many times before, and likely is too downbeat again now.
  • We can't be sure until the final report, but seasonal adjustment likely is depressing September data too much.
  • It makes little sense for the economy to be struggling more now, given the emerging recovery in real wages.

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Keywords for: 25 September 2023 UK Monitor

Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence