25 Nov 2022 UK Monitor Why Do We Expect Unemployment to Rise Sooner than Official Forecasters?
24th Nov 2022 11:02U.K., Daily Monitor
Past recessions show a much shorter lag between falling GDP and employment than the OBR and BoE now expect.
Vacancy data likely provide false comfort; they didn't forewarn of declining employment in early 2008.
Survey measures of employment have fallen sharply; the big corporate financing shock points to layoffs.
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