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  • A jump in payroll-measured productivity has coincided with the proliferation of AI tools.
  • Studies link AI exposure and weak hiring in some sectors, but the impact is tiny at a macro level, so far.
  • The impact of AI will build over time, but the general equilibrium effects on the economy are hard to call. 

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Keywords for: 24 February 2026 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence