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22nd May 2023 07:07U.K., Daily Monitor

  • The gilt market currently is pricing-in a long-term real neutral policy rate—R*—of between 1.5% and 2.0%.
  • This is far too high, given that the U.K.’s poor productivity prospects will keep demand for capital subdued...
  • ...While long-term global trends, such as population ageing, will continue to exert downward pressure on R*.

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Keywords for: 23 May 2023 UK Monitor

May, policy, productivity, rate expectation, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence