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17th Jul 2025 09:05UKWeekly Monitor

  • We reluctantly brought forward our rate-cut call to August, from November, but it’s a ‘one-and-done’.
  • Underlying GDP is trending up, retail sales will bounce strongly in June, and payroll falls seem to be easing.
  • We continue to expect above-target inflation out to end-2027 after sticky wage growth and inflation data.

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Keywords for: 21 July 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: hawkish data means 'one-and-done' cut

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence