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  • Our inflation forecasts factor in a 5% utility price cut in April and maintaining the 5p emergency fuel-duty cut.
  • Rumoured Budget measures could cut 2026 inflation 40bp more than we assume, but will be hard to afford.
  • The Budget will likely affect inflation little via demand, after the Chancellor ditched an income tax hike.

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Keywords for: 19 November 2025 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence