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17th Jul 2023 20:30U.K., Daily Monitor

  • Markets expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by only 25bp next year; a 100bp reduction looks more likely to us.
  • The economy won’t overheat; both fiscal and monetary policy will dampen growth, even if Bank Rate is cut.
  • Sterling’s recent appreciation will subtract 0.5pp from CPI inflation in H2 2024; wage growth will slow sharply.

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Keywords for: 19 July 2023 UK Monitor

Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence