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17th Jul 2025 09:01UKDaily Monitor

  • Surprise! Payrolls were revised to show jobs falling less than half as much this year as previously thought.
  • The payrolls trend is improving, and surveys suggest job falls are ending, while pay growth is proving sticky.
  • We reluctantly bring forward our rate-cut call to August, from November, but it’s a ‘one-and-done’.

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Keywords for: 18 July 2025 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence