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17th Jul 2023 09:58U.K., Daily Monitor

  • Bigger public sector pay increases will be funded from existing budgets; aggregate demand will be unchanged.
  • Pay growth in the public sector doesn’t set a floor; private sector wage growth was often 2pp lower in the 2000s.
  • We look for a 0.7% month-to-month rise in retail sales volumes in June, driven by hotter-than-usual weather.

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Keywords for: 18 July 2023 UK Monitor

Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence