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  • Weak payrolls and a fall in GDP in September make a December rate cut highly likely…
  • …But we hold off forecasting a rate cut early next year, as the underlying picture is better than the headlines.
  • October inflation will likely fall to 3.5%, but the Budget looks less disinflationary after a political storm.

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Keywords for: 17 November 2025 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence