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  • GDP growth looks set to beat the MPC’s forecast in Q4 2025, after November’s 0.3% gain.
  • The recovery in autos manufacturing has little further to run, but underlying activity looks solid to us.
  • Construction output is falling rapidly, closing the gap on the PMI and representing a downside risk to GDP.

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Keywords for: 16 January 2026 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence