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11th Jul 2023 16:17U.K., Daily Monitor

  • The recovery in employment has petered out; the 20% y/y fall in vacancies points to falling employment ahead.
  • The single-month unemployment rate jumped in May to match the MPC’s estimate of its equilibrium rate...
  • ...So current momentum in wage growth will not endure; ignore the jump in the PAYEpay measure in June.

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Keywords for: 12 July 2023 UK Monitor

Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence