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11th Aug 2025 08:01UKDaily Monitor

  • Public sector borrowing matched the OBR’s expectations to June on a cumulative basis…
  • ...but policy U-turns and overoptimistic OBR growth forecasts mean the Chancellor faces a £13B hole.
  • We expect back-loaded stealth and ‘sin’ tax hikes to cover most of the £20B gap against headroom.

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Keywords for: 12 August 2025 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence