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  • We expect CPI inflation to be unchanged at 3.0% in February, matching the MPC’s forecast.
  • Higher core goods inflation—driven by clothes—and airfares should offset weaker services and motor fuels.
  • President Trump looking for an Iran exit ramp means we now see inflation peaking at 3.3% in December.

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Keywords for: 11 March 2026 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence