10 July 2023 UK Monitor GDP Likely Dropped in May, Not Solely Due to the Extra Public Holiday
6th Jul 2023 17:40U.K., Weekly Monitor
- We think GDP fell by about 0.3% month-to-month in May, with 0.2pp due to the extra bank holiday.
- Construction output likely fell in May, as the boost to repair work from new energy efficiency rules wore off.
- A recession, however, isn’t likely; real household disposable income will rise in Q3, despite higher interest rates.
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