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30th Jul 2025 10:46UKDaily Monitor

  • Our central Bank Rate forecast is hawkish, assuming only one more cut this year and none next year.
  • A probability-weighted average of three scenarios is more dovish but still above the market in 2026.
  • Continued sharp payroll falls or easing inflation expectations would shift us to more dovish scenarios. 

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Keywords for: 1 August 2025 UK Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence