Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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24 Nov 2021 Is Mr. Sunak's Fund for Future Tax Cuts Already Under Threat?

  • Rising interest payments are slowing the rate that public borrowing is falling.
  • Fiscal headroom probably will be just half that assumed in the October Budget…
  • …But Mr. Sunak still will have a free hand in signing off pre-election tax cuts in 2023.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 Oct 2021 A Budget with an Eye on the Next Election, not Near-Term Popularity

  • The Chancellor spent only about half of the windfall stemming from the OBR's rosier economic forecasts...
  • ...In order to build scope to cut taxes before the next election, while still meeting his new fiscal targets.
  • The OBR's new GDP forecasts are too upbeat, while its debt interest forecast is too low, but this won't matter.

Samuel Tombs and Gabriella DickensU.K.

26 Oct 2021 How Quickly will the MPC Shrink the APF Over the Coming Years?

  • The MPC will stop reinvestments in Q1 and start selling gilts in Q4 2022, if markets are right about rates.
  • The impact of asset sales is unknown and the MPC wants them to be on auto pilot, so they will be cautious.
  • Gilt sales of £10B per quarter would balance creating future stimulus space with keeping markets steady.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Oct 2021 The OBR's New Interest Payments Forecast will Make Mr. Sunak Wince

  • The OBR likely will revise up its forecast for debt interest payments in 2022/23 by nearly 1% of GDP.
  • Interest payments will be boosted by the outlook for high inflation and markets' expectations for rate hikes.
  • The MPC's plans to shrink the APF will mean more debt is financed at prevailing gilt rates, not Bank Rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 Aug 2021 Will the MPC Finally Set Out its Views on the Lower Bound and Sequencing?

Now that negative rates are in the toolkit, the MPC might divulge its new estimate for the lower bound.
The MPC also might lower the threshold that Bank Rate must reach before it starts to wind down QE.
We expect Ofgem to announce on Friday that the default tariff cap will rise by a painful 13.5% in Q4.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 June 2021 The First Rate Hike Still Looks Distant, after June's MPC Minutes

Investors hoping for a more hawkish tone from the MPC were left disappointed yesterday.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 June 2021 Public Borrowing Won't Reach Sustainable Levels Without Tax Rises

May’s public finance figures haven’t caused us to alter our view that the government will have to press ahead with the tax rises set out in the March Budget in order to reduce public borrowing to 3% of GDP in the mid-2020s.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 May 2021 The Public Finances are Healing, But not as Rapidly as April's Data Imply

The public finances are healing faster than the OBR expected, though April’s figures are not quite as good as they appear at first glance.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence