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Retail sales edged up in July and will benefit in August from Cost of Living grants and the NI threshold hike.
October's energy bill increase will hit real incomes by nearly 4pp; current grants will offset only half that hit...
...But the next PM likely will beef up and extend the current grants sufficiently to prevent a recession.
Growth in employment in the three months to June undershot the consensus by the most in nearly two years.
The workforce, by contrast, is finally picking up, assisted by a recovery in immigration, which will be maintained.
Vacancy and payroll employee data indicate labour demand is stagnating; unemployment will rise further.
The MPC currently expects the unemployment rate to remain well below 4% until Q3 2023...
...But timely indicators suggest demand for labour already is cooling, just as supply is starting to recover.
We expect the unemployment rate to rise above 4% before year-end, keeping a lid on wages and rate hikes.
We have revised up our forecast for Q4 CPI inflation by 1.0pp since early July; energy prices have surged again.
But we have revised down our forecast for the level of GDP by only 0.5pp in Q4; fiscal policy will respond.
People also have shown more willingness to deplete savings; we still expect a recession to be narrowly avoided.
Retail sales fell by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, as households reduced big-ticket discretionary purchases.
Real household disposable income looks set to rise in Q3, thanks to government support measures.
But even if Ms. Truss pushes through her tax cuts, incomes will drop back in the winter, impeding sales.
Accrued debt interest looks set to top the OBR’s forecast by £21B this year, and £15B in the medium term...
...This leaves insufficient headroom for Ms. Truss to de- liver her tax cuts and still run a balanced current budget.
Labour supply has not been hit by April’s increase in NI contributions; reversing it won't be self-funding.
The Governor emphasised at Mansion House that the drop in the workforce has been a key driver of rate rises.
So its 0.8% 3m/3m rise in May, the largest since 1984, should ensure the MPC sticks to a 25bp hike in August.
The workforce has scope to rebound further, while vacancy and survey data imply job growth will slow.
We think employment grew at a steady 0.5% threemonth-on-three-month pace in May.
But expect even faster growth in the workforce to mean that the unemployment rate edged up again.
Surveys suggest wage growth had no more momentum in May than in prior months.
June's Decision Maker Panel Survey shows firms' expectations for price and wage rises have increased.
But households' inflation expectations have fallen back, and more importantly, commodity prices have plunged.
Core goods CPI inflation will turn negative next year, helping to return the headline rate to 2% by late 2023.
The potential medium-term gains might make the nearterm stasis caused by a new Tory leader contest worth it.
A more pragmatic approach to E.U. relations would lift exports and capex; supply-side reforms are overdue.
A snap election isn't likely, given the big majority a new leader would inherit and the poor economic backdrop.
The MPC and consensus still aren't downbeat enough on Q2 GDP; we look for a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter drop.
CPI inflation now looks set to approach 11% in October, driven by further huge rises in food and energy prices...
...But wage growth and inflation expectations haven’t risen, while producer price inflation now is set to plunge.
Rising energy prices likely accounted for 1.6 percentage points of May's 4.9% rate of services CPI inflation.
While the jump in the VAT rate for the hospitality and recreation sector likely has lifted it by a further 0.6pp.
Underlying services inflation, therefore, only just exceeds its 2.5% average rate in the second half of the 2010s.
Mortgage rates have surged in recent months, but still have a lot further to rise over the summer.
Monthly mortgage payments for the average borrower will be £300 higher in July than at the end of 2021.
Prices will be supported by the solid labour market and savings, but the hit from higher rates will dominate.
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