Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

wages

12 Jan 2023 UK Monitor CPI Inflation Likely Undershot the MPC's Forecast Again in December

  • CPI inflation likely fell to 10.3% in December, from 10.7% in November, a hefty 0.6pp below the MPC’s forecast.
  • Motor fuel prices plunged in December, while flash Eurozone data point to a further slowing in food price rises.
  • Evidence is mixed on core goods price momentum, but the usual surge in airfares won’t lift the services CPI much.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 Nov 2022 UK Monitor How will the Chancellor Shave £25B from Government Spending

  • To save £50B, real government spending in 2025/26 will need to be about 1.2% lower than in 2022/23.
  • Investment cuts could plausibly save £11B, while £5B can be saved by ditching a planned rise in overseas aid.
  • Mr. Hunt likely also will resort to raising benefits in April in line with wages rather than prices, saving a further £5B.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Mortgage Refinancing Set to Deliver a 1pp hit to Disposable Incomes in 2023

  • The effective interest rate for all mortgages has risen only slowly to date, but now looks set to soar...
  • ...As a rising number of borrowers refinance, and as lenders respond to the further jump in risk-free rates.
  • Expect a 1pp disposable income hit in 2023 if Bank Rate tops 4%, or a 0.7pp drag if Bank Rate tracks our forecast.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 Sept 2022 UK Monitor The Improved Inflation Outlook Implies the MPC will Stick to a 50bp Hike

  • We think the MPC will raise Bank Rate by 50bp next week, despite other central banks rushing ahead...
  • ...Q3 GDP is set to undershoot the MPC’s latest forecast, while the inflation outlook has improved greatly.
  • Proposed tax cuts are too small to move the inflation needle, and likely will be partly funded by spending cuts.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Will the Better News on CPI Inflation Keep Coming?

  • The month-to-month change in the August core CPI exceeded its seasonal norm by the least this year.
  • The recent decline in commodity prices suggests core CPI inflation will fall sharply next year.
  • Services inflation will be stickier, but the current support from energy price rises and VAT changes will fade.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Wage Growth Remains too High for the MPC, But that will Change in 2023

  • Employment has stopped rising, but labour market slack hasn't accumulated, due to increasing inactivity.
  • We expect labour demand to remain flat but the workforce to grow, as immigration and participation recover.
  • For now, wage growth is too hot for the MPC, but building slack and falling CPI inflation will slow it in 2023.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Labour Market and Retail Sales Data to Persuade the MPC to be Cautious

  • Business surveys and vacancy data point to another negligible rise in payroll employees in August.
  • Wage growth likely remained slightly too strong for the MPC, but probably didn't gain more momentum.
  • BRC data point to a below-consensus fall in retail sales in August; the MPC won't up the hiking pace.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Forecast Review: Lifting Our Bank Rate Forecast, Despite a Looming Recession

  • The jump in energy prices in August means we now expect CPI inflation to peak just above 16% in April 2023.
  • Wage and inflation expectations have risen too, so we now see 50bp rate hikes in September and November.
  • Extra fiscal support likely won't stop a consumer down- turn; an early 2023 recession has become our base case.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence