Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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wages

24 Feb 2021 Job Cuts and Slowing Wage Growth will Temper the Consumer Rebound

24 Feb 2021 Job Cuts and Slowing Wage Growth will Temper the Consumer Rebound

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)23rd Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

22 Feb 2021 How Strong will the Eventual Rebound in Retail Sales Be?

How Strong will the Eventual Rebound in Retail Sales Be?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)21st Feb 2021 19:00U.K.

16 Dec 2020 Still At Least Six Months Until the Labour Market Turns the Corner

Labour market conditions continued to deteriorate at a gradual pace in the autumn, despite uncertainty surrounding the future of government policies.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Dec 2020 17:10U.K.

10 Dec 2020 The Furlough Extension Likely didn't Prevent Further Job Losses

Next week's labour market figures look set to show that the downturn in employment regained momentum in November.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

30 Nov 2020 A Stronger Path for Capex in the Next Economic Cycle?

The only way is up for business investment, after this year's huge decline. In Q3, it was 20% below its Q4 2019 level, easily exceeding the 10-to- 15% peak-to-trough declines...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)29th Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

11 Nov 2020 Unemployment Will Peak at a Lower Rate than After the Last Recession

The labour market has continued to hold up better than we and most other forecasters feared at the start of the pandemic.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Nov 2020 14:10U.K.

9 Nov 2020 Expectations of an End to Furlough Likely Cost More Jobs in October

Tuesday's labour market report looks set to show that job losses continued to accumulate over the autumn, albeit at a measured pace.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

23 Oct 2020 Reforms to the Job Support Scheme will Keep a Lid on Unemployment

The Chancellor's alterations to the Job Support Scheme--JSS--yesterday were substantial enough to reduce meaningfully the scale of job losses ahead.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)22nd Oct 2020 15:10U.K.

14 Oct 2020 The Labour Market is in the Eye of the Storm, More Job Losses Loom

On balance, yesterday's labour market statistics were better than we had expected.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)13th Oct 2020 14:10U.K.

25 Sept 2020 The New Job Support Scheme Won't Work as Intended

We doubt that the new Job Support Scheme, announced by the Chancellor yesterday, will hold back the tide of redundancies over the coming months.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Sep 2020 14:00U.K.

16 Sept 2020 The Upturn in Redundancies is Only Just Getting Going

The latest official data continue to understate the collapse in labour demand since Covid-19.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Sep 2020 14:10U.K.

12 Aug 2020 The Downturn in Employment is Only Half-way Complete

We continue to take little comfort from the small decline in the Labour Force Survey measure of employment in the first half of this year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

31 July 2020 Every Employment Indicator is Continuing to Glow Bright Red

We remain concerned that huge job losses are imminent, slowing the economic recovery after a mid-summer spurt.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)30th Jul 2020 14:10U.K.

29 July 2020 Disposable Incomes are Heading for their Biggest Annual Post-War Drop

The 2008-to-09 recession was a mild experience for most households which remained employed and benefited from a huge decline in mortgage rates.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)28th Jul 2020 14:00U.K.

17 July 2020 Unemployment Still Set to Exceed Its Peak After the Last Recession Soon

The Labour Force Survey continues to understate massively the damage caused by Covid-19.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Jul 2020 14:00U.K.

14 July 2020 PAYE Data to Show Employment Continued to Fall in June

We're bracing for another ugly set of labour market data on Thursday, showing that both employment and earnings fell sharply in May and June.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)13th Jul 2020 14:10U.K.

9 July 2020 Further Stimulus Likely will be Needed in the Autumn Budget

The Chancellor's Summer Statement contained a targeted package of measures aiming to sustain employment and support the ailing hospitality sector. In total, these measures...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Jul 2020 14:00U.K.

29 June 2020 New Gilt Issuance Projections will Imply Rising Private Sector Holdings

Investors active in the government bond market will be awaiting today, at 07:30 BST, the publication by the Debt Management Office of its updated Financing Remit for the upcoming...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)28th Jun 2020 20:10U.K.

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