Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

wages

23 Nov 2021 MPC Members are Keeping their Options Open, No Matter the Data

  • MPC members Bailey and Pill are sitting on the fence, despite last week's upside data surprises.
  • In a weekend paper interview, the Governor highlighted the public sector's role in driving the recovery.
  • We put the odds of a December rate hike at 60%, well below the 80-to-90% range priced by markets.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

17 Nov 2021 Relief on Unemployment, but Still No Clarity on Wider Labour Market Slack

  • The 0.6% m/m rise in payroll employee numbers in October implies unemployment didn't rise post-furlough...
  • ...But the drop in median pay in October suggests many furloughed staff have returned only part-time.
  • Year-over-year growth in wages continued to slow in September; no sign of a wage-price spiral forming.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

3 Nov 2021 Is the Outlook for Households' Incomes Brighter After the Budget?

  • Budget announcements, including the jump in National Living Wage, will support earnings growth next year...
  • ...but higher taxes and inflation suggest real take home pay will fall by 1.5%, the most since 2011.
  • This is one key reason we expect the MPC will hike Bank Rate by less than markets currently expect.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

19 Oct 2021 Here's What Governor Bailey Actually Said

  • Are you sure Governor Bailey said something new on Sunday? Governor Bailey thought not.
  • The statement "we will have to act" was qualified; medium-term inflation expectations need to be worrying.
  • Confidence has fallen in response to rising inflation expectations;  workers don't expect wages to keep pace.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 Oct 2021 September's CPI Data will be the Calm Before the Storm

  • CPI inflation likely was unchanged in September from August's 3.2% rate.
  • Used car prices have surged again, while surveys point to retailers increasing prices faster than usual...
  • ...But motor fuel prices rose only slightly, and accom- modation and food services inflation likely fell back.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 Oct 2021 Solid Q3 Labour Data Won't Suffice for the MPC to Pull the Trigger

  • The labour market continued to tighten in Q3, but employment and hours still were below their potential.
  • Labour supply likely has increased much more than labour demand in Q4, now that the CJRS has ended.
  • Unit wage costs were kept in check by a productivity rebound; rising labour supply will cool wage growth in Q4.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 Sept 2021 Underlying Wage Growth will Slow, Easing the Pressure on the MPC

  • The ONS estimates that underlying year-over-year growth in wages was between 3.6% and 5.1% in July...
  • ...We expect an increase in labour market slack, post-furlough, to push this rate down to about 3.2%.
  • Employers will pass on higher NICs rates to staff, while public sector pay will rise only modestly next year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Sept 2021 Wages Likely Won't Match Inflation as Slack Builds Post-Furlough

  • Payroll employee numbers returned in August to their pre-Covid peak, but will dip in Q4, after furlough ends.
  • We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.0% in Q4, from 4.5% in Q3; slack within firms will build too.
  • Three-month-on-three-month annualised growth in wages fell to 3.2% in July; slack will keep it in check.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

19 July 2021 Inflation Data to Force Early End to QE, but a 2022 Rate Hike isn't Likely

We now expect the MPC to end its gilt purchases immediately at next month's meeting, following last week's consumer prices data.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

8 July 2021 Employment Likely isn't Rising as Quickly as Business Surveys Imply

Next week's labour market report—released during our summer break—likely will show that employment is growing respectably, rather than spectacularly. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 July 2021 Insolvencies Will Rise as Support is Withdrawn, But Not to 2008 Levels

Government support for businesses during the pandemic has kept the number of corporate insolvencies extremely low by past standards.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 June 2021 Rising Employment Won't Box the MPC into a Corner on Rates

It remains our view that employment and wages will not rise rapidly enough over the 18 months to prompt the MPC to hike Bank Rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 June 2021 Is Still-High Furlough Scheme Usage a Cause for Concern?

MPC members have made it clear that the evolution of slack in the labour market will have a crucial bearing on the timing of the first increase in Bank Rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

19 May 2021 Labour Market Slack will Remain Ample Enough to Restrain Wages

The labour market defied its past tendency to lag developments in the wider economy in Q1.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

17 May 2021 April CPI Inflation to Exceed the Consensus

April's consumer prices figures will be closely watched by markets on Wednesday for signs that prices are surging as businesses reopen, especially in light of the big jump in U.S. CPI inflation reported last week.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence