Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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PM Datanote: U.K. Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, February 2021

PM Datanote: U.K. Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, February 2021

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Mar 2021 05:45U.K.

24 Feb 2021 Job Cuts and Slowing Wage Growth will Temper the Consumer Rebound

24 Feb 2021 Job Cuts and Slowing Wage Growth will Temper the Consumer Rebound

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)23rd Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

16 Dec 2020 Still At Least Six Months Until the Labour Market Turns the Corner

Labour market conditions continued to deteriorate at a gradual pace in the autumn, despite uncertainty surrounding the future of government policies.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Dec 2020 17:10U.K.

4 Dec 2020 Will the Impediments to Negative Rates Lessen Next Year?

Markets no longer are confident that the MPC will reduce Bank Rate below zero next year, from its current 0.10% rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

20 Nov 2020 House Prices will Dip Next Year, Absent Fresh Government Support

Official house price figures confirm that the market is booming.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)19th Nov 2020 13:10U.K.

23 Oct 2020 Reforms to the Job Support Scheme will Keep a Lid on Unemployment

The Chancellor's alterations to the Job Support Scheme--JSS--yesterday were substantial enough to reduce meaningfully the scale of job losses ahead.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)22nd Oct 2020 15:10U.K.

22 Oct 2020 Very Low CPI Inflation Reflects More than Just Indirect Tax Cuts

CPI inflation picked up to 0.5% in September, from 0.2% in August, when the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme was running.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)21st Oct 2020 14:10U.K.

8 Oct 2020 House Prices won't Remain at Current Levels, Unless the Treasury Intervenes

Data continue to show that the housing market ran hot over the summer, as buyers eager to change their lifestyles in response to Covid-19 rushed through purchases.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)7th Oct 2020 14:10U.K.

25 Sept 2020 The New Job Support Scheme Won't Work as Intended

We doubt that the new Job Support Scheme, announced by the Chancellor yesterday, will hold back the tide of redundancies over the coming months.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Sep 2020 14:00U.K.

16 Sept 2020 The Upturn in Redundancies is Only Just Getting Going

The latest official data continue to understate the collapse in labour demand since Covid-19.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Sep 2020 14:10U.K.

9 Sept 2020 A 2% Uplift to the CPI Looms, Without an E.U. Trade Deal

After three years, we think the level of the CPI would be about 2% higher if the U.K. falls back on WTO terms for trade with the E .U. than if a deep Free Trade Agreement is...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Sep 2020 14:00U.K.

6 Aug 2020 The Recovery will Decelerate Sharply in the Autumn

A range of indicators show that the pace of the economic recovery shifted up a gear in July, when all shops were open for the entire month, and most consumer services providers...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)5th Aug 2020 14:10U.K.

19 June 2020 Weekly Gilt Purchases to Halve, Following the MPC's Miserly Meeting

The BoE has lived up to its reputation again as one of the most unpredictable central banks.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)18th Jun 2020 14:00U.K.

17 June 2020 April's Decline in Employment is Just the Start

At first glance, the latest labour market data appear to be contradictory.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Jun 2020 14:10U.K.

10 June 2020 GDP Recovery Greatly Constrained by the Fitful Reopening of Schools

The government's decision to shelve plans to reopen primary schools fully later this month will ensure that GDP remains greatly below its precoronavirus level throughout the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Jun 2020 14:10U.K.

2 June 2020 Manufacturing is Reviving, but a Full Recovery will Take Several Years

We remain convinced by other evidence that manufacturing output now is recovering, though pre-virus levels of production likely will not be realised for several years.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Jun 2020 14:10U.K.

20 May 2020 Wages to Fall Outright as Labour Market Slack Accumulates

We hope never to see another labour market report as bad as yesterday's, though the omens aren't good.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)19th May 2020 14:00U.K.

18 May 2020 How to Decipher This Week's Labour Market Report

This week's labour market report--primarily reflecting conditions in March, though some data refer to April--will lift the veil on the initial economic damage from...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)17th May 2020 20:10U.K.

11 May 2020 More QE Coming in June, Following Inaction from the MPC Last Week

The MPC's pause for breath last week disappointed a majority of investors, who thought that it would at least tweak aspects of the support programmes put in place in March.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th May 2020 20:10U.K.

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