Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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16 Sept 2021 Higher CPI Inflation Still Due to Only a Few Components

  • The month-to-month rise in the core CPI in August was only 0.1pp bigger than the average in the 2010s.
  • Used cars and computer games drove the large monthly gain; no sign of broad-based price increases.
  • Higher energy prices will push up the headline rate to 4% in Q4 and Q1, but the MPC needn't blink.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 Sept 2021 The Consensus for August CPI Inflation Looks too Low

  • We think CPI inflation leapt to 3.1% in August, from 2.0% in July, above the 2.9% consensus.
  • Core inflation likely jumped on the anniversary of the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme...
  • ...But it also probably was boosted by abnormally large increases in used car and other goods prices.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

19 Aug 2021 CPI Base Effects Distract from July's Slowing in Core Price Rises

  • The pace of month-to-month increases in consumer prices slowed in July; the re-opening surge is over.
  • CPI inflation still is set to rise sharply, but the peak will be a bit below the 4% rate expected by the MPC...
  • ...The MPC's food and energy price assumptions are too high, while goods inflation will fall swiftly next year.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

17 Aug 2021 CPI Inflation Likely Fell Sharply in July, Taking the Consensus by Surprise

  • CPI inflation probably declined to 2.1% in July from 2.5% in June, below the consensus, 2.3%.
  • Clothing prices appear to have fallen sharply, as usual; they dropped only marginally a year ago.
  • Surveys suggest the pace of increases in catering services prices has slowed down.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

19 July 2021 Inflation Data to Force Early End to QE, but a 2022 Rate Hike isn't Likely

We now expect the MPC to end its gilt purchases immediately at next month's meeting, following last week's consumer prices data.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 June 2021 Which Measures of Underlying Inflation will the MPC Track?

With CPI inflation edging above the MPC's 2% target in May and set to approach 3% later this year. 

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

17 June 2021 Above-Target Inflation will Last no Longer than a Year

The jump in CPI inflation to 2.1% in May, from 1.5% in April, marks the start of a period of above target inflation driven by services businesses hiking prices as they reopen, as well as higher energy prices.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 May 2021 The Public Finances are Healing, But not as Rapidly as April's Data Imply

The public finances are healing faster than the OBR expected, though April’s figures are not quite as good as they appear at first glance.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 May 2021 Surveys Point Unambiguously to Higher Services Inflation Ahead

We were particularly struck last week by the absence of a jump in prices up on the reopening of non-essential shops and some services businesses in April.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

20 May 2021 Surging Energy Prices won't Distract the MPC from Modest Core Inflation

April’s consumer prices report was notable for the absence of a pick-up in domestically-generated inflation.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 Apr 2021 CPI Inflation will Exceed the 2% Target only Modestly and Briefly

CPI inflation remains on course to rise sharply  over the coming months, even though March’s  0.7% rate undershot the 0.8% consensus, as well as the BoE’s 1.1% forecast in February’s Monetary Policy Report.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

19 Apr 2021 CPI Inflation is Reviving, but Won't Need to be Reined In by the MPC

March's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, likely will show that CPI inflation jumped to about 0.8%, from 0.4% in February, en route for a 2% rate as soon as May.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 Mar 2021 Inflation Remains Set for Lift-Off in Q2, But Not to the Moon

We warned of downside risk to the consensus forecast for CPI inflation to rise to 0.8% in February, from 0.7% in January, but the 0.4% prin t was outside of the range we thought plausible.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

17 Mar 2021 RPI Inflation will be Stickier than Markets Currently Expect

Markets' inflation expectations have continued to rise in recent days.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

4 Mar 2021 A Bold Budget, Both In Terms of Near-Term Support and Tax Rises

Chancellor Sunak’s second Budget was bolder than widely expected, both in terms of the ne arterm fiscal support provided and the tax rises planned for future years.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 Feb 2021 Business Investment and Taxes Can Both Rise, with the Right Policies

A political consensus is emerging that higher rates of corporation tax would be one of the least painful ways of raising tax revenues in order to control public borrowing, once the pandemic is over.

samuel tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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