Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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22 Apr 2021 CPI Inflation will Exceed the 2% Target only Modestly and Briefly

CPI Inflation will Exceed the 2% Target only Modestly and Briefly

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)21st Apr 2021 18:00U.K.

19 Apr 2021 CPI Inflation is Reviving, but Won't Need to be Reined In by the MPC

CPI Inflation is Reviving, but Won't Need to be Reined In by the MPC

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)19th Apr 2021 00:00U.K.

25 Mar 2021 Inflation Remains Set for Lift-Off in Q2, But Not to the Moon

Inflation Remains Set for Lift-Off in Q2, But Not to the Moon

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Mar 2021 18:00U.K.

17 Mar 2021 RPI Inflation will be Stickier than Markets Currently Expect

RPI Inflation will be Stickier than Markets Currently Expect

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Mar 2021 18:00U.K.

4 Mar 2021 A Bold Budget, Both In Terms of Near-Term Support and Tax Rises

Chancellor Sunak's second Budget was bolder than widely expected, both in terms of the ne arterm fiscal support provided and the tax rises planned for future years.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)3rd Mar 2021 18:00U.K.

26 Feb 2021 Business Investment and Taxes Can Both Rise, with the Right Policies

Business Investment and Taxes Can Both Rise, with the Right Policies

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)25th Feb 2021 18:00U.K.

15 Feb 2021 Weakness in Capex and Exports will Temper the Consumer-led Rebound

Weakness in Capex and Exports will Temper the Consumer-led Rebound

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Feb 2021 00:00U.K.

9 Feb 2021 Higher Commodity Prices will Send CPI Inflation Briefly Above 2%

Higher Commodity Prices will Send CPI Inflation Briefly Above 2%

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Feb 2021 18:00U.K.

21 Jan 2021 Core Inflation Likely Will Remain Below 2% Throughout 2021

The pick-up in the headline rate of CPI inflation to 0.6% in December, from 0.3% in November, simply reflects it reverting to its trend rate.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)20th Jan 2021 18:00U.K.

19 Jan 2021 Surging Transport Prices to Push CPI Inflation Above the Consensus

Surging Transport Prices to Push CPI Inflation Above the Consensus

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)18th Jan 2021 18:00U.K.

12 Jan 2021 Why have British Households Spent so much Less than those Abroad?

Why have British Households Spent so much Less than those Abroad?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Jan 2021 18:00U.K.

17 Dec 2020 Risks of a 2021 Inflation Overshoot are Low, Absent No-Deal

The decline in CPI inflation to 0.3% in November, from 0.7% in October, likely doesn't represent a shift in the underlying trend.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Dec 2020 22:10U.K.

14 Dec 2020 How Far Would Sterling Fall in the Event of No-deal?

Attempting to forecast the likely level of sterling in the event of a no-deal Brexit is more of an art than a science, as it is impossible to know the extent to which this act of...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)14th Dec 2020 00:10U.K.

30 Nov 2020 A Stronger Path for Capex in the Next Economic Cycle?

The only way is up for business investment, after this year's huge decline. In Q3, it was 20% below its Q4 2019 level, easily exceeding the 10-to- 15% peak-to-trough declines...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)30th Nov 2020 00:10U.K.

23 Nov 2020 New OBR Forecasts to Shed Light on Scale of Future Fiscal Tightening

The run of lower-than-expected, though still high, public borrowing continued in October, with "PSNB ex." coming in at £22.3B, well below the £28.7B anticipated by the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)23rd Nov 2020 00:10U.K.

19 Nov 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Won't Breach 2% in 2021

The pick-up in CPI inflation to 0.7% in October, from 0.5% in September, does not mark the start of a sustained uptrend.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)18th Nov 2020 18:10U.K.

18 Nov 2020 Retail Sales Likely Edged Down in October, But a New Peak Lies Ahead

The consensus for a mere 0.3% month-to-month fall in the official measure of retail sales volumes--the data are released on Friday--looks too sanguine. We look for a fall...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)17th Nov 2020 18:10U.K.

16 Nov 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Rose in October, But it's too Soon to Call an Uptrend

We see slight upside risk to the consensus and MPC forecasts that CPI inflation remained at 0.5% in October. We think it nudged up to 0.6%, though admittedly a 0.5% print looks...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)16th Nov 2020 00:10U.K.

12 Nov 2020 The Boost to GDP from Post-Covid Dis-Saving will be Slow Burning

Positive news from Pfizer on the efficacy of its candidate vaccine has brought the post-Covid world into closer focus.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)11th Nov 2020 18:10U.K.

2 Nov 2020 QE Extension Now Very Likely this Week, Given the Second Lockdown

The case for the MPC to extend its asset purchase programme into 2021 is compelling. The mere 2.1% month-to-month rise in GDP in August has left the Committee's September...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)2nd Nov 2020 00:10U.K.

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