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Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Interest payments look set to be about £37B higher in 2022/23 than the OBR forecast in March.
So the next PM will have to borrow more this year than last to have a fighting chance of averting a recession.
We expect Ms. Truss to unveil tax cuts and extra grants worth an extra £20B this year, and £44B in 2023/24.
The U.K.'s relatively high rate of CPI inflation is largely due to government policies.
The energy price shock has been softened by grants, not tax cuts; VAT and NICs hikes have also played a role.
Higher core goods inflation than in the Eurozone is largely due to Brexit, not stronger underlying demand.
We have revised up our forecast for Q4 CPI inflation by 1.0pp since early July; energy prices have surged again.
But we have revised down our forecast for the level of GDP by only 0.5pp in Q4; fiscal policy will respond.
People also have shown more willingness to deplete savings; we still expect a recession to be narrowly avoided.
Households saved much less and borrowed more in Q2; real spending, therefore, likely was unchanged from Q1.
On paper, households have ample scope to reduce their saving rate further, but we see several constraints.
Some already have depleted savings, credit conditions are tightening, and deleveraging will be more attractive.
The U.K. composite PMI in July was above the 50.0 mark, in contrast to the U.S. and the Eurozone.
We think that this strength can be largely explained by the small manufacturing sector and recent fiscal policy.
Ofgem's energy price cap will rise by a further 23% in April, if the recent surge in wholesale prices is sustained.
Accrued debt interest looks set to top the OBR’s forecast by £21B this year, and £15B in the medium term...
...This leaves insufficient headroom for Ms. Truss to de- liver her tax cuts and still run a balanced current budget.
Labour supply has not been hit by April’s increase in NI contributions; reversing it won't be self-funding.
The tax cut plans of Tory leadership contenders should be treated with a pinch of salt, given past experience.
Tax cuts won't lift GDP, if they are financed partially by spending reductions; the latter have a higher multiplier.
We doubt that even Ms. Truss would take away the BoE's independence.
The trade deficit remained extremely large by past standards in May, driven by a surge in imports.
We expect the deficit to remain huge over the rest of the year; it is on track to be the biggest since the 70s.
Tory candidates tax pledges would have to be very large in order to alter the economic outlook materially.
Rising energy prices likely accounted for 1.6 percentage points of May's 4.9% rate of services CPI inflation.
While the jump in the VAT rate for the hospitality and recreation sector likely has lifted it by a further 0.6pp.
Underlying services inflation, therefore, only just exceeds its 2.5% average rate in the second half of the 2010s.
CPI inflation in May was 1pp higher in the U.K. than in theEurozone; Brexit hasn’t helped but isn’t the main cause.
U.K. core goods prices were depressed more by lock- downs; base effects will lower the U.K.’s rate soon.
The relative strength of U.K. services inflation is due to VAT hikes and a rise in course costs for E.U. students.
Core CPI inflation declined to 5.9% in May, from 6.2% in April, and will fall further in June.
Retailers are shrinking their margins, rather than passing on surging producer prices fully to consumers.
Faltering demand will constrain future core price rises, enabling the MPC to stop its hiking cycle this year.
Public borrowing in April was in line with the OBR’s forecast, but expect upside surprises later this year.
Mr. Sunak likely will not opt to reduce the main rate of VAT; firms would benefit more than households.
Bringing forward April 2023’s large CPI-linked increase in benefits to October would make the most sense.
CPI inflation likely would hit the 2% target by April 2023, if energy prices instantly return to early January levels.
Past experience suggests a temporary 2.5pp VAT cut would lower CPI inflation by only 0.3-to-0.6pp.
A 10% depreciation of sterling would boost the CPI by 0.75pp after one year, and by 2.75pp in the long term.
Higher energy prices and tax rises pushed up the headline rate of CPI inflation to a 40-year high in April.
But there were encouraging signs that retailers are starting to absorb some of the surge in producer prices.
Inflation will ease over the summer as base effects kick in and the real income squeeze inhibits services price rises.
CPI inflation likely soared to 9.2% in April, from 7.0% in March, largely due to the jump in the energy price cap.
BRC data are consistent with another large rise in core goods prices, while services prices likely shot up too...
...In response to the hospitality VAT hike, big increases in phone contract prices, and an Easter boost to airfares.
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