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- The MPC would ease monetary policy again in the unlikely event that another lockdown is imposed.
- Fiscal policy would be less supportive than in previous lockdowns; new curbs would dampen inflation.
- Negative rates are in the toolkit and are preferred to more QE; Bank Rate likely would be cut to -0.25%.
- October's 4.2% rate of CPI inflation was well above the MPC's 3.9% forecast; such a large error margin is rare.
- The upside surprise came from the core, and will carry over to future months; April's peak looks set to top 5%.
- Mean-reversion in energy and goods prices, however, should ensure that CPI inflation dips below 2% in 2023.
- Energy prices likely were the key driver of higher CPI inflation in October, but the core rate probably rose too.
- Used car prices rocketed again, while data from the BRC point to a chunky rise in clothing prices.
- Hospitality firms probably raised prices in response to the VAT hike; the boost is uncertain but likely large.
- The near-term outlook for GDP has worsened, but 2022 looks a little brighter in the wake of the Budget.
- Higher energy prices mean we have revised up our forecast for CPI inflation in 2022 to 3.6%, from 3.4%.
- We now expect two rate hikes, not one, in the next 12 months, but still anticipate no change this week.
- The MPC's preferred measure of underlying services inflation merely matched its 2010s average in September.
- CPI inflation is on course to rise to a peak of about 4.8% in April, from 3.1% in September...
- ...But the rise will be driven largely by higher energy prices; core inflation should remain well-behaved.
- The month-to-month rise in the core CPI in August was only 0.1pp bigger than the average in the 2010s.
- Used cars and computer games drove the large monthly gain; no sign of broad-based price increases.
- Higher energy prices will push up the headline rate to 4% in Q4 and Q1, but the MPC needn't blink.
- We think CPI inflation leapt to 3.1% in August, from 2.0% in July, above the 2.9% consensus.
- Core inflation likely jumped on the anniversary of the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme...
- ...But it also probably was boosted by abnormally large increases in used car and other goods prices.
- The pace of month-to-month increases in consumer prices slowed in July; the re-opening surge is over.
- CPI inflation still is set to rise sharply, but the peak will be a bit below the 4% rate expected by the MPC...
- ...The MPC's food and energy price assumptions are too high, while goods inflation will fall swiftly next year.
- CPI inflation probably declined to 2.1% in July from 2.5% in June, below the consensus, 2.3%.
- Clothing prices appear to have fallen sharply, as usual; they dropped only marginally a year ago.
- Surveys suggest the pace of increases in catering services prices has slowed down.
We now expect the MPC to end its gilt purchases immediately at next month's meeting, following last week's consumer prices data.
With CPI inflation edging above the MPC's 2% target in May and set to approach 3% later this year.
The jump in CPI inflation to 2.1% in May, from 1.5% in April, marks the start of a period of above target inflation driven by services businesses hiking prices as they reopen, as well as higher energy prices.
The public finances are healing faster than the OBR expected, though April’s figures are not quite as good as they appear at first glance.
We were particularly struck last week by the absence of a jump in prices up on the reopening of non-essential shops and some services businesses in April.
April’s consumer prices report was notable for the absence of a pick-up in domestically-generated inflation.