U.K. Publications
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
unemployment
- The OBR's forecast for the effective mortgage rate looks
implausibly high; we expect a smaller drop in RHDI...
- ...But its forecast for the saving rate to fall to a joint-record low, supporting spending, jars with past experience.
- The saving rate usually rises when the unemployment rate increases; rising rates will spur debt repayments.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- September’s data showed no let up in the rate of core price rises; the MPC will continue to hike rates quickly.
- Core CPI inflation, however, will ease soon; firms have too much stock, and demand is about to plunge.
- The outlook for energy CPI inflation is unclear again, but rising unemployment will let the MPC focus on the core.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- We’ll need to raise our forecast for CPI inflation in Q2 2023 by 5pp, if Ofgem’s unsubsidised price cap returns.
- One option for the government is to maintain grants for low income households; these wouldn’t lower the CPI.
- The MPC will worry more about demand than inflation expectations; unemployment will have risen by April.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Employment was broadly flat in Q3, but the recent jump in firms' borrowing costs signals a big fall ahead.
- Long-term sickness looks set to rise further, but government policies likely will boost the workforce in 2023.
- We expect the unemployment rate to peak at about 5.5%, easily high enough to subdue wage growth.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The supply of existing homes on the market needs to rise sharply to depress house prices substantially...
- ...But the link between unemployment and forced sales has loosened, as fewer low-to-mid earners own homes.
- We look for a 5% drop in house prices over the next 12 months, but a severe decline in housing transactions.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- A recession now is all but inevitable; the key questionis how the pain will be distributed.
- Hiking Bank Rate to 6% would crush domestically-generated inflation; mortgage defaults would soar.
- Hiking more slowly would depress sterling and boost imported inflation, but is the lesser evil for the MPC.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The improved near-term outlook for CPI inflation has left the MPC less anxious about second-round effects.
- The MPC is awaiting more details on fiscal policy; a 75bp hike in November can't be ruled out...
- ...But the proposed tax cuts will do little to boost GDP, and spending might be cut; we still expect a 50bp hike.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The effective interest rate for all mortgages has risen only slowly to date, but now looks set to soar...
- ...As a rising number of borrowers refinance, and as lenders respond to the further jump in risk-free rates.
- Expect a 1pp disposable income hit in 2023 if Bank Rate tops 4%, or a 0.7pp drag if Bank Rate tracks our forecast.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- We think the MPC will raise Bank Rate by 50bp next week, despite other central banks rushing ahead...
- ...Q3 GDP is set to undershoot the MPC’s latest forecast, while the inflation outlook has improved greatly.
- Proposed tax cuts are too small to move the inflation needle, and likely will be partly funded by spending cuts.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Employment has stopped rising, but labour market slack hasn't accumulated, due to increasing inactivity.
- We expect labour demand to remain flat but the workforce to grow, as immigration and participation recover.
- For now, wage growth is too hot for the MPC, but building slack and falling CPI inflation will slow it in 2023.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Business surveys and vacancy data point to another negligible rise in payroll employees in August.
- Wage growth likely remained slightly too strong for the MPC, but probably didn't gain more momentum.
- BRC data point to a below-consensus fall in retail sales in August; the MPC won't up the hiking pace.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Low unemployment means few homeowners will be forced to sell up, and construction already is declining.
- Landlords, however, likely will struggle to raise rents in line with the jump in their mortgage payments.
- We expect the stock of homes on the market, therefore, to rise over the next year, weighing on house prices.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- Households continued to save less and borrow more in July, in order to maintain consumption.
- Looking ahead, though, people lack the fire-power to withstand future income shocks.
- We now think a winter recession will be avoided only if the government beefs up financial support massively.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
