Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

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1 Mar 2021 Scarring will Exceed the OBR's Expectations, Necessitating Tax Rises

1 Mar 2021 Scarring will Exceed the OBR's Expectations, Necessitating Tax Rises

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)28th Feb 2021 19:00U.K.

24 Feb 2021 Job Cuts and Slowing Wage Growth will Temper the Consumer Rebound

24 Feb 2021 Job Cuts and Slowing Wage Growth will Temper the Consumer Rebound

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)23rd Feb 2021 13:00U.K.

11 Jan 2021 How Close is the MPC to Pulling the Negative Rates Trigger?

How Close is the MPC to Pulling the Negative Rates Trigger?

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Jan 2021 19:00U.K.

16 Dec 2020 Still At Least Six Months Until the Labour Market Turns the Corner

Labour market conditions continued to deteriorate at a gradual pace in the autumn, despite uncertainty surrounding the future of government policies.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Dec 2020 17:10U.K.

10 Dec 2020 The Furlough Extension Likely didn't Prevent Further Job Losses

Next week's labour market figures look set to show that the downturn in employment regained momentum in November.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)9th Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

2 Dec 2020 The Downturn in Retail Sector Employment is Only Beginning

The collapse this week of Arcadia and Debenhams--two high-street stalwarts who together employ 25K people--marks the start of a painful shake-out of employment in the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)1st Dec 2020 13:10U.K.

30 Nov 2020 A Stronger Path for Capex in the Next Economic Cycle?

The only way is up for business investment, after this year's huge decline. In Q3, it was 20% below its Q4 2019 level, easily exceeding the 10-to- 15% peak-to-trough declines...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)29th Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

26 Nov 2020 The Fiscal Repair Job will be Bigger than the OBR's Forecasts Imply

The OBR's new forecasts for public borrowing likely understate the scale of the necessary future fiscal consolidation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)25th Nov 2020 13:10U.K.

20 Nov 2020 House Prices will Dip Next Year, Absent Fresh Government Support

Official house price figures confirm that the market is booming.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)19th Nov 2020 13:10U.K.

11 Nov 2020 Unemployment Will Peak at a Lower Rate than After the Last Recession

The labour market has continued to hold up better than we and most other forecasters feared at the start of the pandemic.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Nov 2020 14:10U.K.

9 Nov 2020 Expectations of an End to Furlough Likely Cost More Jobs in October

Tuesday's labour market report looks set to show that job losses continued to accumulate over the autumn, albeit at a measured pace.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Nov 2020 19:10U.K.

23 Oct 2020 Reforms to the Job Support Scheme will Keep a Lid on Unemployment

The Chancellor's alterations to the Job Support Scheme--JSS--yesterday were substantial enough to reduce meaningfully the scale of job losses ahead.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)22nd Oct 2020 15:10U.K.

14 Oct 2020 The Labour Market is in the Eye of the Storm, More Job Losses Loom

On balance, yesterday's labour market statistics were better than we had expected.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)13th Oct 2020 14:10U.K.

13 Oct 2020 High Inflation Expectations aren't Warranted by the Outlook

You wouldn't know from markets' inflation expectations that a large deflationary shock recently has hit the economy.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)12th Oct 2020 14:00U.K.

9 Oct 2020 The Second Wave of Layoffs Will Emerge in September's PAYE Data

Next week's labour market report likely will show that job cuts accelerated again, after a lull in the summer.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)8th Oct 2020 14:10U.K.

25 Sept 2020 The New Job Support Scheme Won't Work as Intended

We doubt that the new Job Support Scheme, announced by the Chancellor yesterday, will hold back the tide of redundancies over the coming months.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)24th Sep 2020 14:00U.K.

23 Sept 2020 The Housing Market is Starting to Come Off the Boil

It is fair to say that the strength of the rebound in the housing market over the summer has caught most analysts, including ourselves, by surprise.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)22nd Sep 2020 14:10U.K.

16 Sept 2020 The Upturn in Redundancies is Only Just Getting Going

The latest official data continue to understate the collapse in labour demand since Covid-19.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)15th Sep 2020 14:10U.K.

11 Sept 2020 The MPC will Preserve the Option of Another QE Extension in Q4

The MPC likely will steer clear of providing strong signals on the outlook for monetary policy at next week's meeting.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)10th Sep 2020 14:10U.K.

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