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Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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House purchase demand is falling quickly in response to the jump in mortgage rates and drop in real incomes.
New mortgage rates look set to rise further in Q3, greatly weighing on approvals.
A contraction in supply, however, will prevent a slump in prices; we still forecast a modest 2% decline in H2 2022.
The headline rate of CPI inflation topped the MPC forecast in June, due to higher motor fuel and food prices.
But the core rate fell, undershooting its forecast, as retailers struggled to pass on higher producer prices.
Core CPI inflation will fall sharply early next year, when recent falls in commodity prices will feed through.
The trade deficit remained extremely large by past standards in May, driven by a surge in imports.
We expect the deficit to remain huge over the rest of the year; it is on track to be the biggest since the 70s.
Tory candidates tax pledges would have to be very large in order to alter the economic outlook materially.
Business investment fell in Q1, partly due to supply disruption preventing orders being fulfilled.
But supply shortages are easing, and with Brexit and Covid uncertainty dissipating, capex should rebound.
A renewed rebound in business investment will support GDP growth in the second half of the year.
Core CPI inflation declined to 5.9% in May, from 6.2% in April, and will fall further in June.
Retailers are shrinking their margins, rather than passing on surging producer prices fully to consumers.
Faltering demand will constrain future core price rises, enabling the MPC to stop its hiking cycle this year.
The trade deficit was huge by past standards in April, despite narrowing to £8.5B, from £11.6B in March.
Import values have surged as fuel prices have shot up, while Brexit is continuing to weigh on exports.
We expect the largest trade deficit since the mid-70s in 2022, leaving sterling vulnerable to depreciate further.
Higher energy prices and tax rises pushed up the headline rate of CPI inflation to a 40-year high in April.
But there were encouraging signs that retailers are starting to absorb some of the surge in producer prices.
Inflation will ease over the summer as base effects kick in and the real income squeeze inhibits services price rises.
The trade deficit, excluding erratics, jumped to a recordhigh in March, largely due to the surge in energy prices.
High energy prices, surging imports of travel services and weak export growth will keep the deficit wide.
Governor Bailey is showing no signs of buckling to pressure from MPs for faster rate hikes to tame inflation.
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