Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

transport

7 Sept 2022 UK Monitor July GDP to Show the Economy has Slowed, but is Not in Recession Yet

  • We look for a modest 0.3% month-to-month rise in July
    GDP, leaving it only 0.1% up from three months earlier.
  • The composite PMI has pointed to stronger growth, but it excludes the distribution and health sectors.
  • Revised GDP estimates later this month likely will show that economic activity still is below its pre-Covid peak.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

1 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Capex will Continue to Recover, Despite the Risk of Recession

  • Business investment rose again in Q2, as key uncertainties faded and supply constraints began to ease.
  • We expect a further rebound in H2; balance sheets are strong and investment intentions still are high.
  • But we doubt capex will return to its pre-Brexit share of GDP; the U.K is a less desirable place to invest.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

3 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Surging Mortgage Rates Point to an Outright Drop in House Prices

House purchase demand is falling quickly in response to the jump in mortgage rates and drop in real incomes.

New mortgage rates look set to rise further in Q3, greatly weighing on approvals.

A contraction in supply, however, will prevent a slump in prices; we still forecast a modest 2% decline in H2 2022.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

21 July 2022 UK Monitor June's CPI Data Unlikely to Spur the MPC to Hike by 50bp Next Month

The headline rate of CPI inflation topped the MPC forecast in June, due to higher motor fuel and food prices.

But the core rate fell, undershooting its forecast, as retailers struggled to pass on higher producer prices.

Core CPI inflation will fall sharply early next year, when recent falls in commodity prices will feed through.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 July 2022 Sterling is Vulnerable, Due to the Colossal Trade Deficit

The trade deficit remained extremely large by past standards in May, driven by a surge in imports.

We expect the deficit to remain huge over the rest of the year; it is on track to be the biggest since the 70s.

Tory candidates tax pledges would have to be very large in order to alter the economic outlook materially.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

12 July 2022 Business Investment Still Looks Set to Rise, Reducing Recession Risks

Business investment fell in Q1, partly due to supply disruption preventing orders being fulfilled.

But supply shortages are easing, and with Brexit and Covid uncertainty dissipating, capex should rebound.

A renewed rebound in business investment will support GDP growth in the second half of the year.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

23 June 2022 Core CPI inflation Already has Peaked and will Fall Rapidly in Early 2023

Core CPI inflation declined to 5.9% in May, from 6.2% in April, and will fall further in June.

Retailers are shrinking their margins, rather than passing on surging producer prices fully to consumers.

Faltering demand will constrain future core price rises, enabling the MPC to stop its hiking cycle this year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 June 2022 The Trade Deficit is On Course to be the Largest Since the Mid-Seventies

The trade deficit was huge by past standards in April, despite narrowing to £8.5B, from £11.6B in March.

Import values have surged as fuel prices have shot up, while Brexit is continuing to weigh on exports.

We expect the largest trade deficit since the mid-70s in 2022, leaving sterling vulnerable to depreciate further.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

19 May 2022 The Outlook for CPI Inflation Doesn't Warrant Rapid Rate Hikes

Higher energy prices and tax rises pushed up the headline rate of CPI inflation to a 40-year high in April.

But there were encouraging signs that retailers are starting to absorb some of the surge in producer prices.

Inflation will ease over the summer as base effects kick in and the real income squeeze inhibits services price rises.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

17 May 2022 The Trade Deficit will Remain Large, Casting a Shadow Over Sterling

The trade deficit, excluding erratics, jumped to a recordhigh in March, largely due to the surge in energy prices.

High energy prices, surging imports of travel services and weak export growth will keep the deficit wide.

Governor Bailey is showing no signs of buckling to pressure from MPs for faster rate hikes to tame inflation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence