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Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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We have revised up our forecast for Q4 CPI inflation by 1.0pp since early July; energy prices have surged again.
But we have revised down our forecast for the level of GDP by only 0.5pp in Q4; fiscal policy will respond.
People also have shown more willingness to deplete savings; we still expect a recession to be narrowly avoided.
The U.K. composite PMI in July was above the 50.0 mark, in contrast to the U.S. and the Eurozone.
We think that this strength can be largely explained by the small manufacturing sector and recent fiscal policy.
Ofgem's energy price cap will rise by a further 23% in April, if the recent surge in wholesale prices is sustained.
The trade deficit remained extremely large by past standards in May, driven by a surge in imports.
We expect the deficit to remain huge over the rest of the year; it is on track to be the biggest since the 70s.
Tory candidates tax pledges would have to be very large in order to alter the economic outlook materially.
CPI inflation in May was 1pp higher in the U.K. than in theEurozone; Brexit hasn’t helped but isn’t the main cause.
U.K. core goods prices were depressed more by lock- downs; base effects will lower the U.K.’s rate soon.
The relative strength of U.K. services inflation is due to VAT hikes and a rise in course costs for E.U. students.
OIS rates do not accurately reflect investors’ expectations for Bank Rate; a sub-2% peak wouldn’t be a shock.
The outlook for sterling is more closely tied to overall risk sentiment in markets than the outlook for U.K. rates.
Our call that rates will top out at 1.75% assumes positive supply-side developments which will boost risk appetite.
The trade deficit was huge by past standards in April, despite narrowing to £8.5B, from £11.6B in March.
Import values have surged as fuel prices have shot up, while Brexit is continuing to weigh on exports.
We expect the largest trade deficit since the mid-70s in 2022, leaving sterling vulnerable to depreciate further.
The PM still won't be safe if he wins the confidence vote; rule changes or a recall petition could remove him.
A change of leader would raise the chances of a general election, which might weigh on business investment.
But the economic outlook will improve if a successor is constructive with the E.U. and on supply-side reforms.
The trade deficit, excluding erratics, jumped to a recordhigh in March, largely due to the surge in energy prices.
High energy prices, surging imports of travel services and weak export growth will keep the deficit wide.
Governor Bailey is showing no signs of buckling to pressure from MPs for faster rate hikes to tame inflation.
Q1 GDP grew faster in the U.K. than overseas because consumers were shielded from higher energy prices.
Monthly data show growth slowed during Q1; falling retail sales were more than just a consumer rotation.
Falling real incomes, declining health spending and the extra bank holiday will reduce GDP in Q2.
March's retail sales figures were a wake-up call for investors; households are struggling to tread water.
Consumers' confidence weakened further in April and now is only a touch above its all-time low.
We still expect a recession to be avoided, but the risk will weigh on the MPC's forthcoming decisions.
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