Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

trade

1 Dec 2022 UK Monitor Brexit Damage Still Very Visible in the U.K.'s Trade Data

The U.K. continued to run a very large trade deficit in Q3, largely due to the surge in natural gas prices.

The evidence that Brexit is disrupting U.K. trade, meanwhile, is mounting, particularly in the services data.

These two factors mean the trade deficit is on course to be the largest since the 70s this year.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, September 2022

  • In one line: Elevated energy prices are keeping the deficit large. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, August 2022

  • In one line: Huge by past standards, and looks set to remain so. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

7 Oct 2022 UK Monitor Don't Expect Net Trade to Boost GDP Much if Sterling Falls Further

  • Sterling’s depreciation to date is too small to materially boost net trade or shrink the current account deficit.
  • Most exporters price in foreign currencies, due to their reliance on imports; competitiveness won't improve.
  • Britain’s demand for imports is price insensitive; firms won't invest in extra capacity to out-compete imports.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

28 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Surveys Point to a Small Drop in GDP in Q3, but this is Just the Start

  • PMI and confidence data for September suggest GDP edged down for a second consecutive quarter in Q3.
  • The downturn will gather momentum, as borrowing costs for households and businesses soar.
  • We now look for a 1.5% year-over-year decline in GDP in 2023, and CPI inflation not to return to 2% until 2025.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, July 2022

  • In one line: The deficit will remain colossal by past standards. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

6 Sept 2022 UK Monitor How will Energy Price Interventions Impact the Inflation Outlook?

  • Ms. Truss has been tight-lipped about her plans, but a
    trade body plan to freeze prices is gaining traction.
  • If implemented, CPI inflation will return to the 2% target in 2023, easing the pressure for further big rate hikes.
  • Firms need help too, though we think Ms. Truss will cut business rates and provide grants, not reduce VAT.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

25 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Will Sterling Force the MPC into a Painful Rate Hiking Path?

Sterling has dropped, despite a sharp rise in Bank Rate expectations, because expected inflation has soared.

But the MPC will have flexibility if, as we expect, core inflation falls, boosting the expected real rate.

We expect the U.S. Fed to be more cautious than investors expect, easing some of the pressure on the MPC.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 Aug 2022 UK Monitor A Growing Trade Deficit will Increase Reliance on the Kindness of Strangers

The trade deficit has hit a record share of GDP over the last two quarters, but it will only get worse.

Goods imports will fall, as firms now have excess stock, but the value of energy imports will surge this winter.

The U.K.'s shortfall in exports relative to 2018 remains the largest in the G7; Brexit is largely to blame.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Aug 2022 UK Monitor Q2 GDP Withstood the Government Spending and Jubilee Drags Well

Q2 GDP would have held steady without the Jubilee and risen by 0.9% q/q if Covid spending hadn't plunged.

The 0.2% q/q drop in households' real expenditure was a good result, given the massive fall in real incomes.

A recession isn't inevitable, provided fiscal support is increased substantially and households draw on savings.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, June 2022

  • In one line: Another massive deficit, but the worst is yet to come.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 July 2022 Sterling is Vulnerable, Due to the Colossal Trade Deficit

The trade deficit remained extremely large by past standards in May, driven by a surge in imports.

We expect the deficit to remain huge over the rest of the year; it is on track to be the biggest since the 70s.

Tory candidates tax pledges would have to be very large in order to alter the economic outlook materially.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

29 June 2022 Does Higher Inflation than in the Euro- zone Point to a U.K.-Specific Problem?

CPI inflation in May was 1pp higher in the U.K. than in theEurozone; Brexit hasn’t helped but isn’t the main cause.

U.K. core goods prices were depressed more by lock- downs; base effects will lower the U.K.’s rate soon.

The relative strength of U.K. services inflation is due to VAT hikes and a rise in course costs for E.U. students.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 June 2022 Will Sterling Force the MPC to Stick to a Path of Rapid Rate Hikes?

OIS rates do not accurately reflect investors’ expectations for Bank Rate; a sub-2% peak wouldn’t be a shock.

The outlook for sterling is more closely tied to overall risk sentiment in markets than the outlook for U.K. rates.

Our call that rates will top out at 1.75% assumes positive supply-side developments which will boost risk appetite.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 June 2022 The Trade Deficit is On Course to be the Largest Since the Mid-Seventies

The trade deficit was huge by past standards in April, despite narrowing to £8.5B, from £11.6B in March.

Import values have surged as fuel prices have shot up, while Brexit is continuing to weigh on exports.

We expect the largest trade deficit since the mid-70s in 2022, leaving sterling vulnerable to depreciate further.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, April 2022

  • In one line: Deficit still set to equal the largest share of GDP since the mid-1970s.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 June 2022 How would the Economic Outlook Change if Mr. Johnson is Dethroned?

The PM still won't be safe if he wins the confidence vote; rule changes or a recall petition could remove him.

A change of leader would raise the chances of a general election, which might weigh on business investment.

But the economic outlook will improve if a successor is constructive with the E.U. and on supply-side reforms.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

17 May 2022 The Trade Deficit will Remain Large, Casting a Shadow Over Sterling

The trade deficit, excluding erratics, jumped to a recordhigh in March, largely due to the surge in energy prices.

High energy prices, surging imports of travel services and weak export growth will keep the deficit wide.

Governor Bailey is showing no signs of buckling to pressure from MPs for faster rate hikes to tame inflation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 May 2022 Brisk Quarterly GDP Growth Masks a Slowdown during Q1

Q1 GDP grew faster in the U.K. than overseas because consumers were shielded from higher energy prices.

Monthly data show growth slowed during Q1; falling retail sales were more than just a consumer rotation.

Falling real incomes, declining health spending and the extra bank holiday will reduce GDP in Q2.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, March 2022

  • In one line: Another substantial underlying deficit, due to high energy prices.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence