UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, January 2023

• In one line: The overall trade deficit likely will continue to narrow this year. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, December 2022

• In one line: The overall trade deficit widened on the back of high gas prices.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, November 2022

• In one line: The overall trade deficit is being flattered by a surplus in erratics. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, October 2022

• In one line: The overall trade deficit is being flattered by a surplus in erratics. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

1 Dec 2022 UK Monitor Brexit Damage Still Very Visible in the U.K.'s Trade Data

The U.K. continued to run a very large trade deficit in Q3, largely due to the surge in natural gas prices.

The evidence that Brexit is disrupting U.K. trade, meanwhile, is mounting, particularly in the services data.

These two factors mean the trade deficit is on course to be the largest since the 70s this year.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, September 2022

• In one line: Elevated energy prices are keeping the deficit large. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, August 2022

• In one line: Huge by past standards, and looks set to remain so. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

7 Oct 2022 UK Monitor Don't Expect Net Trade to Boost GDP Much if Sterling Falls Further

• Sterling’s depreciation to date is too small to materially boost net trade or shrink the current account deficit.
• Most exporters price in foreign currencies, due to their reliance on imports; competitiveness won't improve.
• Britain’s demand for imports is price insensitive; firms won't invest in extra capacity to out-compete imports.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

28 Sept 2022 UK Monitor Surveys Point to a Small Drop in GDP in Q3, but this is Just the Start

• PMI and confidence data for September suggest GDP edged down for a second consecutive quarter in Q3.
• The downturn will gather momentum, as borrowing costs for households and businesses soar.
• We now look for a 1.5% year-over-year decline in GDP in 2023, and CPI inflation not to return to 2% until 2025.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, July 2022

• In one line: The deficit will remain colossal by past standards. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

6 Sept 2022 UK Monitor How will Energy Price Interventions Impact the Inflation Outlook?

• Ms. Truss has been tight-lipped about her plans, but a
  trade body plan to freeze prices is gaining traction.
• If implemented, CPI inflation will return to the 2% target in 2023, easing the pressure for further big rate hikes.
• Firms need help too, though we think Ms. Truss will cut business rates and provide grants, not reduce VAT.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.